неделя, 3 юни 2012 г.

Risk management vs Superstition

   People get killed every day , every hour and every second worldwide. There are so many superstitions why a certain person got killed. Some say it's fate , others say it's god's judgement being brought upon them or some preternatural force. A girl I used to know got killed by a drunk driver in the USA while driving her bike. I'm certain that everyone who knew the girl asked himself "Why?" when they heard the appalling news. Why such a jovial and positive person deserves such fate? Maybe because she wasn't aware that Florida has some of the worst drivers in the world . What if she was in any other state instead of Florida? Or she knew how reprehensible are Florida's drivers? Her chances to be a victim of a roadkill would be much lower.

  In hindsight , it seems to me that  all relied on risk management or "how to lower your chances to get killed by random events". Risk management is the more scientific (and therefore more rational) explanation to the event. Thankfully , the words "god" and "fate" don't exist in risk managament's description. It all boils down to what you do and where you live. If you live in the ghetto and you're a member of the local gang , your chances to die are much higher than a middle aged man taking care of his farm in the middle of nowhere. Heck , you can get killed  even if you're a kid who's just playing around in the ghetto . Consequently , your life doesn't depend on what god thinks about you or your fate. One simply  must be prudent of how he lives and what he does . And it's pretty arduous to protect yourself considering how many ways to die are there . I recall how safe and calm I felt when I had a bike ride in one of The Hague's affluent neighbourhoods , where people drive modern cars , there are bike alleys  and everyone obeys the traffic rules and , on the other hand , how I felt in driving between aggressive drivers in more than a decade-old cars.

  And let's not forget that there's always serendipity. We can all recall a disaster which someone survived only by luck.But it's good to know that we can have control over our lives as long as we think consciously.